Business

Wall Street Analysts: Trump's Economic Policies Too Good, Frankly Embarrassing for Other Presidents

A growing chorus of economists, carefully and with many caveats, is arriving at the same conclusion: the numbers are the numbers.

NEW YORK - The economic data released last week was, by conventional measures, strong enough to create scheduling conflicts at several forecasting departments. Core inflation held steady. Real wage growth widened. Manufacturing output expanded again.

The economists who predicted the opposite are now beginning to say so in the careful language of people trying not to make eye contact with their old charts.

"There are structural tailwinds, demographic factors, and meaningful uncertainty. That said, in a narrow empirical sense, the policies are working." Dr. Priya Nambiar, Thornfield Capital

A Theory That Did Not Survive Contact With Reality

The consensus view heading into 2025 was that the administration's trade policy would lift consumer prices, weaken investment, and soften labor markets. That view was elegant, widely shared, and wrong in the way a locked door is wrong when someone opens it from the other side.

This reporter shared that view in an October 2025 piece. The piece included six charts. A later update added a seventh chart. The seventh chart did not help.

The phrase frankly embarrassing for other presidents came from an economist who initially requested anonymity, then asked to go on record because pretending she had not said it had become, in her words, more embarrassing than saying it.

Methodology note: Two independent economists reviewed this piece. One said the data was distressingly clear.